Idol Rules: October Surprise

Tamyra Gray. LaToya London. Chris Daughtry. Tonight's elimination is going to add someone to that infamous list of 4th place finishers. What makes this year's fourth place different is that it is going to be epic no matter who ends up getting bounced. Seriously, set your DVR's, VCR's or watch tonight's elimination live, because it will be the most amazing elimination ever...


Part of my premise is based on the fact that I don't believe we are going to get the inevitable Adam Lambert-Danny Gokey finale that people have been predicting since February. Allison and Kris have proven to be quite capable and deserving of reaching this stage of the competition, and the complacency of the voters is going to shake things up.

I think the only person truly safe is Adam, since there was the wake-up call provided by his appearance in the bottom three (though not necessarily bottom two) last week. Although I didn't care for either of his performances last night, they were the most universally well-received so he has quite a big safety net. BUT if he does get eliminated, most likely because of complacency, we may see an entire auditorium shit themselves on live TV.

Eliminating Allison Iraheta will create an interesting scenario. As the last female and contestant-of-color, it's going to annoy quite a large group of viewers. However, based on this week alone, I think her elimination would be the most surprising. Adam and Kris were on the bubble last week. While the individual performances of Allison and Kris were not well received, her duet with Adam did earn her bonus points. I think the consensus would be along the lines of "she didn't deserve to go this week".

The awesomeness of a Kris Allen elimination will have a delayed effect. Besides being saddled with Gokey and a terrible song choice (Styx, seriously?), he then had to immediately follow up that performance. The cards are not in his favor, although his performance was my favorite of the night. What is interesting is that both Kris and Gokey have been attracting the "cougar" vote, a term that makes my poli-sci heart turn ice cold. I have no idea how valid that particular political cleavage is, but there must be some reason that some went with Danny and some with Kris and I don't see them jumping sides. In other words, if Kris is eliminated this week, I can see there being quite a bit of backlash against Danny next week.

And then there's Danny. Everything about the performance, from song choice to execution, just blared "Bad Idea". I haven't had an Idol WTF moment like that since that girl crying for Sanjaya during British Invasion week back in Season 6. Based on this week alone, Danny deserves to go home. However, can you imagine the reaction if one of the presumptive finalists is eliminated this early? Best of all, if Danny does get the boot, he has to do "Dream On" as his sing-out. How awesome is THAT going to be?

What do I think will happen? Kris and Danny will end up on the Seal, but beyond that I'm just not sure. I want Kris to stay (and perhaps win) but I think I may be clinging to a hope that just isn't there.